Investors in world markets have calmed down: the pressure on risky assets has subsided and the ruble breathed a sigh of relief. Most of the day yesterday, the USD / RUB pair was declining dynamically, movement in the same direction was observed on Tuesday. The dollar exchange rate is quoted below 74.00 rubles. However, this recovery looks fragile enough. The key support factors for the ruble are now the approaching peak of the tax period. Exporters sell foreign currency before paying MET. In addition, oil returned above the psychological level of $ 70 a barrel, which also supported the Russian currency. As a reminder, on Tuesday Brent quotations sank to $ 67.50 per barrel. On Friday, a meeting of the Bank of Russia will take place, at which a sharp increase in the key rate is expected. If the markets do not receive any unexpected negative and nothing darkens the mood of global investors, on Thursday the USD / RUB pair will remain trading within the range of 73.50–75.50 with the possibility of testing its lower border. Despite the existing support factors, it is unsafe, even speculative, to actively buy the ruble. It would be wiser to wait for tomorrow’s meeting of the Bank of Russia and the announcement of a decision on monetary policy. The meeting of the European Central Bank is in the spotlight today. The regulator, as expected, kept the policy unchanged. Against the background of the extension of the quantitative easing program, the euro will be under pressure and may fall in price against the dollar to 1.1750. The ruble, on the contrary, should strengthen to 73.60 per dollar, according to Sber CIB. Now the ruble is in a fairly comfortable environment. The likelihood of a rate hike at tomorrow’s meeting to 75-100 bp. high. Everything is in favor of exactly this development of events: high inflationary expectations and current inflation. In addition, the rhetoric of the representatives of the Central Bank of late has been clearly directed towards tightening the policy. Meanwhile, the ruble may not show an appropriate reaction, since the rate hike has been known for a long time and market players managed to put this scenario into quotes. Investors will be interested in the further tone of the Russian regulator, which may not live up to expectations. It is possible that the management of the Bank of Russia will decide to make the signal about further tightening of the policy less clear or will not mention it at all. Slowdown of inflation may affect the decision of the Central Bank. Consumer prices in Russia stabilized last week, and even a week earlier their growth slowed down to less than 0.01%. Of course, the influence of seasonal factors was not without, but the Central Bank can pay attention to this. If inflation remains stable for the third week in a row in July, then the figure could be equal to the numbers a year ago. This will happen for the first time since June last year, if you do not count this April. The slowdown in inflation may affect the decision of the Bank of Russia at its Friday meeting. Thus, the likelihood of a sharper increase in the key rate is reduced. The Central Bank may declare the need to monitor prices in the future and postpone the transition of the key rate to the area of ​​hard values ​​until the meeting in September. Source: Instaforex