Back on January 25, I wrote in my cart:
So far everything is going according to plan. I tell you the topic, and some assholes put clowns on me here.
What does USDRUB mean looks delicious?
This means that there is now such a trend being drawn, in which the profit / risk ratio for long positions looks very attractive.
In general, my analysis of the reasons for the fall of the ruble in December showed that the factors were temporary, in December there was a bottleneck, subsequently, a reduction in the seasonal surge in imports and the elimination of a one-time flow to buy foreign currency should lead to a decrease in the USD rate in the 1st quarter. But these are just assumptions, there is always something that you can overlook. The chart so far shows that the demand for the currency is steadily exceeding supply at the moment, which means that something is happening again that we do not see, even despite the tripling of the sale of the yuan since February 7, there may already be 12-15% of the daily turnover.
Yesterday, by the way, there was also something interesting from Kostin’s interview. In the chat for annual premium subscribers @mozgovikresearch, they discussed just … It turns out that the rise in the dollar from February 25 to March 10 was due to the fact that investors withdrew $ 26 billion from VTB, and the assets in the currency were frozen … As a result, the dollars are in emergency mode I had to buy on the market, which resulted in a super-loss.
That is, for example, if VTB bought 26 yards at an average of 95 rubles, for example, it turned out to be 2.5 trillion rubles. Accordingly, it was possible to lose 0.5 trillion rubles only on the currency difference with the exchange rate of 75 rubles. So when you watch the rise in the rate from 70 to 100, it occurs to you that those who withdraw the currency from the VTB deposit are to blame for this?
Of course, the question is interesting why Sberbank did not have such a problem …
Returning to the ruble. I made a sketch on June 23 last year (blue dotted line), as I see the trajectory of the ruble over time.
This trajectory worked in the most amazing way and continues to work. If she continues to work, then by May we will see the course 83. But this is purely drawing.
If we draw an oblique support line from the July lows (green dotted line), then by May they should remain at the same level as now, around 71.5. In principle, this forecast is more in line with my fundamental vision for the currency.
What do you think, which option for the dollar by May is more realistic? 83 or 71.5?