Nuances with the refusal of Russian gas

Nuances with the refusal of Russian gas

The last time I wrote about gas was on May 2, the topic received a lot of comments.

So, the Czech Republic, Poland, Bulgaria refused to buy Russian gas for rubles.

Bulgaria – the price of the issue is small – 2.5 billion m3 per year. There really is no alternative. There are no LNG terminals and no gas-rich neighbors.

Poland. Consumption 21 billion m3. I myself produce 4. The remaining 17.5 billion m3 will be provided by the Swinouice LNG terminal, and 12 remains. That is Russia’s share.
Hope for the Baltic Pipe from Norway, which will be launched this year. But they only have a contract for 8.5 billion m3. In addition, it is not clear where Norway will take the additional 8.5 bcm. They will need to be placed somewhere.

Norway has reached a production ceiling of 123.7 billion m3, now production will only decline. There are no reserves. I do not understand something? What’s the point of hauling new pipe from Norway if Norway can’t get more? By the way, gas in Norway is left for 12 years.

Connoisseurs, attention to the question: where will Norway get gas for Poland, if production is already on the shelf?

In short, it looks like everything will end with a virtual reverse through countries that are ready to buy gas for rubles from Russia. So, for example, Austria and Slovakia did not show off – they officially bought gas from Gazprom more than they consumed and virtually returned it to the *beaten countries that cannot buy directly from Russia.

According to all forecasts, global gas consumption will only grow by 2030 (+15%).

👉The average gas price for Europe in 2021 was $274/1000m3
👉In Q4 2021 it was $517
👉In 2022, the average gas price could reach $500-600

So far, the situation looks like that if Gazprom’s supplies decrease in 2022, they will be more than offset by rising prices.
This year should be a record year for Gazprom in terms of revenue.
This really does not say anything about the investment attractiveness of the company, because so far we can only guess how Gazprom will manage its cash.

Author of articles on trading and investments, which I have been doing for more than 8 years. Even from your phone, you can open a deal, buy shares, build up capital in assets that will bring dividends even when you stop working. You can't just not think about it.

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